Unhappy New Year: Black Optimism Is Way Down

As President Donald Trump was sworn into office for a second term on the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, a new poll shows an overwhelming majority of Black Americans began the new year with a sense of dread and pessimism about the nation’s future. 

The recent Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll also finds that people of color, the LGBTQ+ community, and a large swath of women are much less optimistic walking into this year than they were at the beginning of 2024. Further, the gloom cuts across generations; the poll found a significant number of Gen Z and Millennials are concerned about their safety and civil rights

“It’s clear that there are groups within America for whom the potential policies of the new administration are going to directly impact their lives,” said John Gerzema, CEO of The Harris Poll. 

The poll results come as Trump has signed and issued a flurry of executive orders that are widely viewed as harmful to marginalized communities. They include rolling back decades’ worth of civil rights gains and protections — including gutting the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and declaring the U.S. officially recognizes just two genders. 

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The opinions of the Black and gay rights communities stand in stark contrast with the opinions of Americans overall. According to the Axios Vibe survey, a total of 63% of respondents said 2025 will be better than 2024. That’s relatively unchanged from December 2023, when 66% of respondents said they were more optimistic about 2024 than 2023. 

But among Black people the level of optimism nose-dived, dropping from 80% to 61% over the same time period. For the LGBTQ+ community,’ the optimism level dropped from 76% to 60%; women’s optimism plunged from 65% to 58%. Among Latinos, the percentage who are optimistic for the coming year declined from 78% to 67%.

A closer look at the results shows 64% of Black respondents and 61% of LGBTQ respondents said they are concerned about their personal civil rights.

A Gallup poll published Thursday has similar findings. The organization’s annual Mood of the Nation poll found just 44% percent of Americans report being “very satisfied” with the way things are going in their personal life —  the lowest level for this question since Gallup first asked it in 2001. It’s also a 21 percentage-point decline over January 2020, when the measure peaked at 65% just before the COVID pandemic.

Gallup’s poll finds that Americans overall are very dissatisfied with the way things are going in the nation. 

“More than three-quarters of U.S. adults are “very” (50%) or “somewhat” (27%) dissatisfied with the country, while just one in five are somewhat (16%) or very (4%) satisfied,” according to the poll. 

The Gallup poll echoes surveys conducted before the November 2024 election. 

In October, 77% of respondents to an American Psychological Association poll reported that concerns over the future of our nation was “a significant source of stress in their lives,’ making it the most common source of significant stress in this year’s survey.” 

The Harris Poll conducted the Axios Vibes survey online from January 3-5; with just over 2,100 respondents.  The online survey is part of a series of polls Axios and Harris Poll conducted during the 2024 election cycle.

RELATED: Trump’s Actions on DEI Are an Attack on Black America

If you are experiencing a mental health crisis, are thinking about suicide, or are worried about someone else who needs emotional support, call or text the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline at 988. Help is available 24/7. TTY users can dial 711 and then 988 to get help. 

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